Baccarat Odds

Author: Oliver Keegan Updated:
Baccarat Odds

The Baccarat odds represent the probabilities that a certain bet you place will be successful. However, there might be multiple Baccarat odds depending on the type of bet you place. Let’s discover what are the Baccarat probabilities of hitting a winning hand!

Baccarat winning odds

Before explaining the Baccarat winning odds, you need to understand the game’s rules and essential elements. The goal is to bet on the winning hand. You can make three types of bets: Banker, Player, and Tie.

According to your choice, there are different Baccarat odds. These also influence the game’s payout. Besides this, you must take the house edge into account before placing your wagers.

Baccarat house edge

This represents the advantage that the game and the casino have over a player. Baccarat is a popular pick at online casinos as it has a lower edge than other games.

Bet type

House edge

Banker

1.06%

Player

1.24%

Tie

14.4%

House edge on Banker bet

Banker-Bet-House-Edge

Theoretically, the bets made on the banker win 46% of the time because the game favours them. The dealer makes moves based on what the player draws. When taking the Tie bet out of the picture, the dealer’s hand wins approximately 51% of the time. This marginal advantage is the reason punters prefer wagering on the banker’s hand to win.

It is also worth mentioning that the Baccarat payout comes with a 5% commission. Placing a £10 bet would get you £9.5 instead of £10.

House edge on Player bet

Player-Bet-House-Edge.ai_

The player has winning odds of 44.6%, slightly lower than the banker’s hand. It is the second most profitable Baccarat bet after the Banker bet. However, this bet pays 1:1. So, if you place a £20 bet on the player’s hand, and it is closest to nine, you will receive £20.

Reasons the house has an advantage in Baccarat

The main reason is that the game is designed to give the banker access to information that the gambler does not have. For example, if a punter takes a third card, the dealer uses the value of the dealt card to determine whether the banker will also take a third card or not. This extra information places the dealer at an advantage. Consequently, the house advantage will also be higher.

Another reason is in the payouts. The house takes a commission of 5% on Banker bets when you win, meaning you’re only paid 19 to 20. This reduction in payouts gives the banker an advantage on his bets. This is similar for Tie bets as the house offers payouts that are lower than the comparative breakeven point.

The banker and player winning odds

The Baccarat odds on the banker are slightly higher than the player odds. When talking about these bets, we also have to take into consideration the Tie bet. If we were to leave it aside, the banker odds would be 51%, and the player odds would be 49%. Bear in mind that the Baccarat odds may differ if you’re using a Baccarat strategy. Decide which one is the best for you after trying out multiple techniques!

Theoretical odds on Baccarat

Bet

Odds

Payout

Banker

45.86%

0.95:1

Player

44.62%

1:1

Tie

9.55%

8:1

Tie odds

Tie-odds

The Baccarat odds of ties between the player’s and banker’s hand stands at 9.55%. However, the payout here is quite high, at 8 to 1. The difference between the Baccarat payout and the Baccarat winning odds results in a high house edge of 14.36%. Thus, a wager on a Tie might not always be in the punter’s best interest.

If there is a Tie in a Baccarat game and no one bet on it, the hand is considered a push, and neither the dealer nor the player wins.

Baccarat odds compared to similar games

Along with Blackjack, these two games have the lowest house edge out of all table games. That’s the main reason why highrollers prefer playing them.

Baccarat odds are as good as they get if you want to keep things simple without being weighed down by a complex strategy. Unlike Baccarat, Blackjack requires the use of a strategy chart or a betting system to increase a player’s odds and payouts.

When it comes to Roulette, the odds can be quite different depending on the version you’re playing. In European Roulette, the odds are 48.6%, while American Roulette lowers them to 47.4%. Yet, American Roulette games can offer a 36:1 payout.

How to calculate Baccarat probabilities?

How-to-calculate-Baccarat-probabilities

For the player

Calculations are made to determine whether the banker will win 50.68% of the non-tie bets and the Player 49.32% of them. For instance, if you have 100 credits, you can expect to lose 50.68% of the bets and win 49.32%.

The Baccarat house edge is calculated by getting the difference between the two amounts. In this case, the Player bet has an edge of 1.36%. Remember that the calculations remain the same no matter if you play a regular Baccarat game or engage in a live session. Live games work the same as traditional ones. The only difference is that you can directly interact with the dealer. You may even redeem special promotions tailored to live sessions to try to calculate the odds without spending real funds.

For the banker

To calculate the Banker odds on 100 credits, we can use the following formula:

  • 50.68% (expected win) x 0.95 (win per credit taking 5% commission into account) = 48.15

You can therefore expect to lose 49.32%. In this situation, the house edge is 1.17%.

For Tie bets

According to Baccarat odds and statistics, Tie bets occur about 9.55%, which makes the odds 9.47. If we divide 100 credits by 9.55, we get 10.47. But remember that you get your £1 original wager back. This means that you end up with 9.47. When you divide the difference (1.47/10.47) you get a 14.4% house edge.